The recipe for wavering U.S. support for Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced new efforts against corruption amid visits from foreign officials.
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Summary: U.S. support for the war in Ukraine has been steadfast, but public opinion may continue to slip if stories on corruption emerge. Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a new crackdown on wrongdoing amid visits from leaders from Europe and the United States.
The importance of continued support for Ukraine as an essential responsibility of U.S. global leadership has been a consistent theme of my writing in recent weeks. But the chronic problem of corruption in Ukraine's fledgling democracy — if stories about ongoing issues continue to emerge — would be enough to dissuade the American public and bring to question any obligation to assist in the war.
It can be no coincidence headlines in major news outlets emerged this week signaling Ukraine is pledging new efforts to crackdown on corruption. At the very same time, Ukraine is hosting foreign leaders from Europe and the United States, who are footing the bill for beefing up the embattled country’s defense capabilities.
Raids against Ukrainian leaders who allegedly engaged in corruption was a central component of these new efforts. One raid resulted in the arrest of one of the country's richest men, Ihor Kolomoisky, as other raids took place in the home of former interior minister Arsen Avakov and the main tax office in Kiev. Separately, Ukrainian authorities announced the investigation of senior military officials in two separate cases of suspected corruption, according to a report in Reuters.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was elected in 2019 on a campaign against corruption, addressed the new effort via video late Thursday: "We are continuing our fight against the internal enemy," Zelenskiy was quoted as saying in Reuters, expressing thanks to "all those involved in cleaning up our country."
The timing of the raids follows recent news developments indicating corruption still remains a problem for Ukraine. Just last week, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, offered his resignation without explanation, according to the Associated Press. Also resigning was Deputy Defense Minister Viacheslav Shapovalov, as local media alleged his departure was linked to a scandal related to the purchase of food for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko. These are key figures who may have a role in implementing outside funds in the war effort against the Russian invasion.
The raids that subsequently followed are also sandwiched in between two separate visits from leaders in the United States and Europe. On Friday, Zelenskyy is set to meet with leaders in the European Union. Countries in Europe have had to deal with rising prices as they've sworn off Russian oil as part of the war effort and his efforts to spruce up the domicile will help Ukraine make the case for continued support.
Ukraine has been vocal about joining the European Union, but that doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon with the embattled democracy’s reputation for a high-level of corruption. A EU document ahead of the meeting praised Ukraine, but with lukewarm language about potential membership "encouraged the country to continue on this path” as part of the overall effort to "advance towards future EU membership," according to reports in European media.
A recent visit by U.S. officials to Ukraine this week struck a similar tone. Top officials from the Departments of Defense and State, as well as the U.S. Agency for International Development, conveyed to Ukrainian officials they should be able to account for everything the United States gives and continue the fight against corruption, according a report in The Washington Post. Based on the reports about raids in Ukraine, Zelenskyy appears to have gotten the message.
Corruption scandals would be excellent fodder for the isolationist wing of conservatives who oppose continued U.S. efforts in Ukraine, including notable names such as Reps. Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert. Another member of Congress who recently joined them as U.S. senator, J.D. Vance, offered remarks against U.S. resources in Ukraine just this week, suggesting the contributions were a zero-sum game that could expose weakness to China.
”We have sent so much of our munitions down, so much of our military-grade equipment down, if we have to fight a war against China — which I think is far more likely and, frankly, it's a far more dangerous opponent — that's what worries me, is that the focus on Russia comes at the expense of China," Vance said on Fox & Friends.
These isolationists may be winning. The perception is U.S. support for Ukraine steadily eroding — and recent poll numbers back that up. One recent study from Pew Research found the share of U.S. adults providing too much aid to Ukraine has increased 6 percentage points since last September and 19 points since shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last year.
As the conflict goes on — and perhaps escalates with Russia poised to launch a new assault with an estimated 320,000 troops, or double the force when it began the war — opponents of U.S. support would be able to seize on stories about corruption in Ukraine as a way to accelerate that downward trend in the polls.
And yet, that would make justifiable sense. The war would shift from supporting a democracy against an invading autocratic government to supporting one faux democracy rife with internal setbacks and corruption over another. The war becomes not like unlike the “forever wars” of the United States trying to hold up flawed democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan, which were deemed a complete waste of blood and treasury as time went on.
So far, the news reports about Zelenskyy taking a stand against corruption in Ukraine seem to have outweighed the stories of corruption in terms of which is the more dominant narrative. But it wouldn't take long for that perception to shift if more evidence of that corruption continues to emerge. If Ukraine was found to have misused the ongoing support from the U.S. and partner nations, that would be a recipe for isolationist conservatives to get their way and for the U.S. to pull support from Ukraine entirely.