Russia has friends in low places: Iran and Saudi Arabia lend aid to Ukraine invasion
Efforts against not just one country, but unruly trinity needed to demonstrate consequences for territorial incursions
For all the talk of a Cold War reigniting under Vladimir Putin's new aggressions, the historic analogy doesn't exactly fit given Russia's utter lack of partners in comparison to the Warsaw Pact decades ago. Two partners, nonetheless, have distinctively emerged as supporters in recent weeks — Iran and Saudi Arabia — suggesting the need for efforts against not just one country but an unruly trinity as the conflict in Ukraine continues.
Given the reputation of each of the regimes for brutality, the partnership in many ways shouldn't be surprising. Saudi Arabia, notorious for an abysmal record on human rights, including treatment of women and gay men, was pilloried amid reports its leadership directed the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The ongoing riots in Iran, a country that continues to threaten global stability with its open ambitions for a nuclear weapon, demonstrates even its own citizens are no longer willing to tolerate the oppressive regime.
Key news events in recent weeks reveal Iran and Saudi Arabia are willing to go the extra mile for Putin's ambitions in Russia: 1) Saudi Arabia, despite President Biden having made a personal trip to the country to give the crown prince a fist bump and urge him to ramp up oil production, agreed with its OPEC partners to a surprise reduction in supply; and 2) Iran, as reported exclusively by Reuters, made an arms deal agreement with Russia to beef up its armory with ballistic missiles, in addition to more drones.
Putin may be flailing in Ukraine as his military gains are compromised, but both developments contribute to his ongoing efforts. The purchase of ballistic missiles and drones from Iran has an obvious benefit: Those weapons would boost Russia's continued military engagement in Ukraine. Limiting the oil supply, as done by Saudi Arabia, puts more pressure on the global coalition against Russia, which has become more dependent on energy sources elsewhere amid agreements to reject purchase from Russia's bountiful oil supply.
So it's not just Russia engaged in Ukraine. The contributions of Iran and Saudi Arabia have essentially made them partners with Putin in efforts to rebuff the world order and violate the territorial sovereignty of a neighboring country. As if the decades of oppression under those regimes weren't enough already, their actions demonstrate the need for action against all three to make clear such violations won't be tolerated.
What actions are appropriate in response, however, I don't think is clear, especially as the focus now is deescalating conflict rather than ratcheting it up. President Biden said doing an interview on Sunday he anticipates "consequences" for Saudi Arabia, but nothing along those lines has emerged other the announcement the United States would dip into strategic oil reserves — and that was geared toward addressing rising gas prices as opposed to countering OPEC's oil supply.
One development that may be key to the success is China's newly stated opposition to Russia's actions. China, hungry for reclaiming Taiwan as a matter of national pride and likely ending its democracy there, was widely seen as watching the events unfold in Ukraine, and Western allies reaction to them, as a means to test the waters for potential invasion of its own. The speculation was fueled when Putin had met with Xi Jinping in February shortly the initial invasion, signaling potential cooperation.
But months after the invasion, China — along with India, also seen as a partner to Russia — have publicly called for deescalation of conflict. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry, said at news conference earlier this month "all countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity." Although both countries stopped short of explicitly condemning Putin or any mention of Ukraine, their positions are clear.
The reason Beijing, after its initial equivocation, ultimately gave a thumbs down on the invasion, in my view, comes down to its ultimate goal: China sees itself as the surpassing the United States as the leader of the global order. Russia, unable to take Ukraine in a short time as initially expected, has shown its actions are disruptive, potentially hampering international economies. China doesn't want the global system in jeopardy if it intends to take the reins.
Duplicating the result in China elsewhere will be difficult, but making it clear to Saudi Arabia and Iran their actions would have consequences to their role, or potential role, in the global order may just be the correct route. In the case of Iran, as the Biden administration and European countries seek to create a new deal to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon, negotiators would do well to keep in mind Iran's role in the Ukraine invasion as part of any deal that would open Iran up to trade. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the threat may come to down to financial consequences and renegotiations of agreements on military cooperation, lucrative contracts for U.S. defense companies be damned.
The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, in particular, has already been long overdue for a change. The Saudi's government's human rights abuses are well known and its leadership remains an absolute monarchy, making it one of the most authoritarian governments in the world. Nonetheless, U.S. presidents come to bend the knee to Saudi princes, the United States engages in a proxy war with the Saudis against Yemen and Western democracies continue to consume Saudi oil.
Any threats along these lines would be hard to make with Saudi Arabia, which knows it has significant leverage with its oil supply, or Iran, which has been operating under sanctions outside the global order for some time. Although the tools available may be limited, the cost of turning a blind eye to the support for the Ukraine invasion would signal to Putin's allies they would be free of reprisal if they continue to help his territorial ambitions.