J.D. Vance's win in Ohio was just declared. It could shake up U.S. support for Ukraine.
Peter Thiel-backed candidates have expressed skepticism about continued U.S. support for resistance to Russian invasion
If you're like me, you're watching the election returns come in tonight while enjoying a couple of beers with friends, so apologies in advance if this dispatch comes through with typographical errors under my currently less than rigorous standard for proofreading.
One thing I want to point out in the aftermath of J.D. Vance being declared the winner the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Ohio is the new cadre of Republican members may shake up the U.S. commitment for continued funds in Ukraine as it continues to resist Russia's invasion.
Vance is one of the two Senate candidates, along with Arizona hopeful Blake Masters, backed by venture capitalist and tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel. A central issue for Thiel has been ending U.S. presence in "forever wars," such as operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ukraine's resistance to Russia’s invasion isn't the same as endless regime change efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, but skepticism of U.S. support in Ukraine is consistent with the growing isolationist wing of the Republican Party.
Early on the Republican primary, Vance has made clear he has no interest in U.S. supporting Ukraine resistant, declaring during a speech at CPAC "doesn't really care what happens to Ukraine." In September, Vance said in an interview with local media he can envision cutting off funds for Ukraine entirely.
"I do think that we have to get to a point, and this is where we do disagree, we’ve got to stop the money spigot to Ukraine eventually. We cannot fund a long-term military conflict that I think ultimately has diminishing returns for our own country."
We don't know the results yet for Arizona, but if the early trends are any indication, Blake Masters may be joining Vance in Senate. Masters, a protege of Thiel who co-wrote with him "Zero to One" said just this week in an interview with the Wall Street Journal he wants to go after Ukraine funds. Masters went so far as to say he can envision toppling from his Senate leadership position Mitch McConnell, who has crowed over beating the isolationist wing of his party as he led his caucus in supporting Ukraine funds.
Vance and Masters wouldn't be alone. Josh Hawley, who has been toeing the line for the isolationist wing of the Republican Party, has openly stated he wants to lead the three of them in creating a new factor that would challenge Republican leadership in foreign affairs, in addition to pushing for more border security and oversight of tech companies, according to a recent report in Politico:
The Missouri senator drew stern internal blowback from GOP Leader Mitch McConnell on down for objecting to Biden’s electoral certification, while Republicans criticized him for his skepticism of some GOP judicial nominees. Hawley was the only vote against allowing Finland and Sweden into NATO and argues against “blank checks to Ukraine” as the country tries to fend off Russia.
Two or three senators, of course, would be small portion of any newly expanded Republican caucus. But in a chamber where any one senator has considerable power using the power of the filibuster or placing holds on presidential appointments, that small number has more power than you might think. The new dynamic in Republican caucus could make the U.S. leadership in continued support for Ukraine a lot more complicated.
Long-term support for Ukraine, however, may be in question in any event. The Biden administration, sensing the open window of sympathy eight months into the invasion may soon be closed, has had private talks with Ukraine leaders to encourage them to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, according to a recent report in The Washington Post.
That's directly in response to concern Ukraine allies across the globe, many of whom had to take it on the chin by swearing off Russia’s oil supply, may be unwilling to support the engagement if it drags on with no end in sight, according to the Post:
The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, these people said. Rather, they called it a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.
So challenges for continued U.S, support for Ukraine are now increased on the right with the new Republican additions to the Senate as well as the left under the U.S. government's private encouragement for agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Even though President Biden has said the United States would continue to back Ukraine "as long as it takes," that commitment will seemingly be less than ironclad when the new Congress is seated.